Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ad…1fa5 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-14%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +32.4% +19.7% 58% 32% -23.0%
≤30d 31 +32.4% +19.7% 58% 32% -23.0%
≤90d 31 +32.4% +19.7% 58% 32% -23.0%
all 31 +32.4% +19.7% 58% 32% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.7% 32% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here +8.3% 29% -30.4%
15% -2.2% 26% -37.1%
20% -11.8% 19% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$20 +374%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$9 +847%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +260%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $10 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 51m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records