Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E5 0xe5af…f060 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$364 (+25%) realized +$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +12.5% +1.7% 54% 54% +5.7%
≤30d 63 +12.5% +1.7% 54% 54% +5.7%
≤90d 63 +12.5% +1.7% 54% 54% +5.7%
all 63 +12.5% +1.7% 54% 54% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 54% +5.7%
10% -8.0% 54% -4.4%
15% -16.9% 51% -13.6%
20% -25.0% 46% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$94 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$24 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$28 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$38 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$35 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$30 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$34 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$36 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$40 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$9 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records