Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E5 0xe5b4…4e60 weather 59 markets active 4h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%51W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$12
weather 32% +$10
sports 1% +$3
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 47 +0.4% -9.1% 94% 0% -9.2%
all 58 -2.9% -12.2% 88% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses51 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage634d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 25 Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 24? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 24? May 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17? May 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 16? May 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 15? May 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 12? May 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on May 12? May 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on May 9? May 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on May 6? May 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on May 6? May 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 17°C on May 5? May 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C on May 5? May 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on May 3? May 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 3? May 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 3? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 21? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 20? Apr 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 19? Apr 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 18? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C or below on April 19? Apr 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 17? Apr 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 15? Apr 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 16? Apr 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on April 15? Apr 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C or below on April 13? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 15? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C or below on April 15? Apr 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 12? Apr 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 12? Apr 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 7? Apr 08 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 6? Apr 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 6? Apr 06 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 4? Apr 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Oct 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $114 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $85 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $85 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 25 BUY No 100¢ $30 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $115 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $114 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $60 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $54 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $113 24d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $113 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $112 30d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $88 33d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $24 33d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $112 38d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $112 40d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $111 42d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $82 45d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $29 45d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $111 48d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $55 51d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $56 51d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 52d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 17°C on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $80 52d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 54d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $35 54d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $63 55d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.32 · official $114.21 (match) · 143 history records