Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ba…0f07 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 25% −$2
crypto 14% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 6% $0
weather 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 17% -7.9%
≤30d 11 +2.4% -7.3% 36% 18% -10.1%
≤90d 11 +2.4% -7.3% 36% 18% -10.1%
all 31 -2.7% -12.0% 35% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 6% -10.3%
10% -20.4% 3% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage459d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$5 +14%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $64 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $32 −$6 -20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +36%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 14 $28 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? May 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? May 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $32 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $32 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $32 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $35 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $35 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records