Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ba…af30 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$234 (-8%) realized −$221 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$801
other 20% +$35
world 3% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.5% +1.8% 83% 83% -0.2%
≤30d 8 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 62% -2.9%
≤90d 84 -34.1% -40.4% 46% 19% -29.6%
all 84 -34.1% -40.4% 46% 19% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 19% -29.6%
10% -46.1% 12% -36.3%
15% -51.3% 10% -42.5%
20% -56.1% 8% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$221
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage72d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 68¢ $90 $77 −$13 (-15%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $160 +$28 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $64 +$29 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$35 -34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $87 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $24 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $23 −$7 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $29 +$7 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 04 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 30 $53 −$19 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 30 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 29 $45 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $44 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 29 $43 −$22 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 29 $43 −$22 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 29 $44 −$22 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $44 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 29 $42 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 29 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 29 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 29 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 29 $38 −$19 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 29 $37 −$19 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 29 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 29 $36 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 29 $36 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 29 $35 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 29 $35 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 28 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 28 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 28 $36 −$23 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 28 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 28 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 28 $62 −$31 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 28 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 28 $54 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 28 $20 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 28 $29 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 28 $58 −$19 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $90 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $63 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $94 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $64 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $64 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $66 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 56¢ $66 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $87 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $23 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 5? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 5? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $27 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.31 · official $128.31 (match) · 340 history records