Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe5bc…3c8b
crypto · 107 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$39 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$60
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses95 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)100 / 107
History coverage606d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 7 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 20 $6 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 13 $6 $0 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 13 $8 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 22 $38 +$6 +17%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $6 $0 +5%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 05 $7 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $7 $0 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Jan 05 $13 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 05 $16 +$1 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 22 $7 $0 +6%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Dec 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 09 $6 $0 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 09 $7 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 06 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 85% +$18
other 4% +$4
sports 3% +$7
crypto 2% +$2
economics 2% +$1
tech 2% +$3
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 30d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 30d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $10 54d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $8 54d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $6 54d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $6 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 54d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 54d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 54d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 54d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 54d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 54d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 89d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $7 89d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $6 89d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $6 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 98d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $7 98d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $5 98d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 119d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 100 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 1% -9.1%
10% -16.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.50 · official $59.50 (match) · 320 history records