Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5bf…07d8 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$2
other 7% $0
sports 7% −$7
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage476d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Durand win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $8 $0 +3%
UMass Lowell vs. Maine Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 04 $16 $0 -3%
San Diego State vs. UNLV Mar 04 $15 $0 +2%
Stonehill vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $29 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $9 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $20 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $22 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $39 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $16 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.88 · official $38.25 (match) · 116 history records