Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E5 0xe5c0…4601 weather 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d

TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$44 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR6%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$327per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$105

7 days−$78

14 days−$63

30 days−$63

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +6%

net ROI/market (all)-25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-8.9%	-17.5%	88%	0%	-11.8%
≤30d	14	-8.3%	-17.0%	86%	0%	-11.2%
≤90d	16	-12.6%	-20.9%	81%	6%	-11.0%
all	17	-17.7%	-25.6%	76%	6%	-11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.6%	6%	-11.0%
10%	-32.7%	0%	-19.5%
15%	-39.2%	0%	-27.3%
20%	-45.1%	0%	-34.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

92% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -29% → late -8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.49 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage

Net worth$2,390

Realized−$44

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage198d

Avg bet$327

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 26?	No	100¢	99¢	$2,400	$2,390	−$10 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25?	Jun 25	$2,398	+$5	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24?	Jun 24	$110	−$110	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23?	Jun 23	$100	+$9	+9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23?	Jun 22	$98	+$3	+3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22?	Jun 22	$94	+$4	+4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21?	Jun 21	$91	+$3	+3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21?	Jun 21	$89	+$2	+2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$83	+$6	+8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$80	+$2	+3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$76	+$5	+6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$71	+$5	+7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14?	Jun 14	$69	+$2	+2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12?	Jun 12	$67	+$2	+3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11?	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25?	May 26	$60	+$9	+14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?	May 23	$2	−$2	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Dec 09	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,401	1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,398	15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24?	BUY No	97¢	$110	39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23?	BUY No	91¢	$100	2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23?	SELL No	92¢	$101	3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23?	BUY No	88¢	$98	3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22?	SELL No	100¢	$98	3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22?	BUY No	96¢	$94	3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$91	4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21?	SELL No	100¢	$91	4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21?	BUY No	98¢	$89	4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19?	BUY No	92¢	$83	7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18?	BUY No	97¢	$80	7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16?	BUY No	94¢	$76	9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15?	BUY No	93¢	$71	10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14?	BUY No	98¢	$69	11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12?	BUY No	97¢	$67	13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11?	SELL Yes	6¢	$0	14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25?	BUY No	87¢	$50	32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25?	BUY No	86¢	$10	32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?	BUY Yes	89¢	$2	33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$1	198d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,390.35 · official $2,387.94 (match) · 33 history records