Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c1…7487 sports 919 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 167d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81,424 (-10%) realized −$80,873 · open −$551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%351W / 576L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$891per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$1,682est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,922
7 days−$8,867
14 days−$8,879
30 days−$10,162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$11,739
sports 34% −$73,111
other 1% −$3,303
world 0% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -88.1% -89.3% 4% 4% -92.2%
≤30d 161 -21.6% -29.1% 35% 35% -20.9%
≤90d 335 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 36% -27.1%
all 927 -14.1% -22.3% 38% 37% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 37% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 36% -27.4%
15% -36.5% 34% -34.4%
20% -42.7% 32% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$859 vs −$679 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$80,873
Unrealized−$551
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses351 / 576
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,682
Open positions2
Markets (closed)927 / 919
History coverage167d ⚠
Avg bet$891
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 927 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 29¢ 6¢ $600 $115 −$485 (-81%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 15¢ 6¢ $120 $53 −$67 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Torino FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 23 $369 −$369 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 8PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 6PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-6.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 23 $369 −$369 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Jun 23 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $102 +$90 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2,154 −$2,100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $771 −$123 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $1,820 −$1,750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $616 −$600 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $351 −$345 -98%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $514 −$500 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$421 +206%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $507 −$24 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $507 +$439 +86%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $303 +$163 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $713 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,015 +$1,007 +99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $93 −$91 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,418 +$1,038 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,422 −$1,400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $43 −$42 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $917 +$1,466 +160%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $911 +$574 +63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,022 +$1,152 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $358 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $562 −$550 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,022 +$2,978 +291%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $525 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1,622 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1,538 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 3h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 53¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $514 6h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 53¢ $54 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1,535 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $508 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $263 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $262 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1,151 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $406 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 58¢ $506 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $509 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 45¢ $508 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 63¢ $506 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 19¢ $97 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $254 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $204 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $1,021 8d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 30¢ $306 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 51¢ $483 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $510 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.50 · official $168.50 (match) · 3500 history records