Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c4…8a72 crypto 774 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$594 (-1%) realized −$594 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate87%672W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$42
14 days+$52
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 11% -7.2%
≤30d 177 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 26% -11.3%
≤90d 774 -2.8% -12.1% 87% 42% -9.4%
all 774 -2.8% -12.1% 87% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 42% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$80 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses672 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)774 / 774
History coverage81d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 774 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$5 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $92 +$8 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $179 +$21 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 07 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 07 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $82 +$18 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $82 −$81 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 06 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $65 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $83 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $83 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 06 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 06 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 06 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $67 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 05 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $18 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $70 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $79 −$78 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 04 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3091 history records