Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c5…4c75 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -21.9% -29.4% 41% 41% -20.5%
≤30d 27 -21.9% -29.4% 41% 41% -20.5%
≤90d 27 -21.9% -29.4% 41% 41% -20.5%
all 27 -21.9% -29.4% 41% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 41% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 37% -28.1%
15% -42.3% 30% -35.0%
20% -48.0% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$10 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.57 · official $33.57 (match) · 69 history records