Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c6…6e9e world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$2
other 25% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.7% 36% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.7% 36% 7% -9.2%
all 36 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage445d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $80 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? Aug 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Jorgenson win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $9 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 10m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 19m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $46 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $46 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $14 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $43 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $19 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $8 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $15 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.83 · official $36.83 (match) · 129 history records