Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c7…31cc world 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$238 (+10%) realized −$300 · open +$538
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$32
sports 12% −$30
crypto 11% −$53
politics 9% −$52
tech 8% +$445
other 5% +$6
economics 2% −$11
finance 2% −$44
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +1.7% -8.0% 46% 46% -20.4%
≤90d 32 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 25% -30.7%
all 32 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 25% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 25% -30.7%
10% -40.8% 25% -37.4%
15% -46.5% 22% -43.4%
20% -51.7% 19% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$26 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,582
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$538
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)32 / 44
History coverage43d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 12¢ 97¢ $78 $635 +$557 (+711%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $278 $319 +$40 (+14%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 37¢ 36¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $158 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $52 $89 +$37 (+70%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 89¢ $43 $54 +$11 (+26%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 41¢ 50¢ $41 $50 +$10 (+23%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $40 $47 +$8 (+19%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $120 $8 −$112 (-93%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Reymond/Sanchez vs Altmaier/Jebens Jun 10 $4 +$4 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $92 −$90 -98%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $52 +$48 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $47 +$53 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 +$49 +97%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $23 −$22 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $256 −$128 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $92 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $96 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $52 +$20 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $105 +$25 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $1 +$6 +698%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 14 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 14 $24 −$24 -98%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $7 17m
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $2 19m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 37¢ $209 1h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $81 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 17h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $278 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $163 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $40 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $52 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 38¢ $92 16d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY Yes 52¢ $52 18d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 88¢ $18 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 18d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $51 18d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Reymond/Sanchez vs Altmaier/Jebens BUY Altmaier/Jebens 47¢ $4 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $47 18d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $42 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,581.82 · official $1,581.82 (match) · 104 history records