Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe5c8…84a6 sports 386 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,060 (+3%) realized +$6,526 · open −$1,466
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%188W / 196L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2,335est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 446d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,863
politics 1% −$1,254
other 1% −$129
world 0% −$762
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 38% 38% +2.4%
≤30d 78 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 42% -12.1%
≤90d 383 -1.1% -10.5% 49% 49% -7.0%
all 384 -1.4% -10.7% 49% 49% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 49% -7.7%
10% -19.3% 48% -16.5%
15% -27.1% 48% -24.6%
20% -34.2% 44% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$549) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$383 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$6,526
Unrealized−$1,466
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses188 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,335
Open positions2
Markets (closed)384 / 386
History coverage446d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3 Yes 38¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Azure Dragon Gaming 54¢ $1,468 $1 −$1,467 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $342 −$342 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 28 $130 −$129 -99%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 27 $185 −$182 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 27 $171 +$193 +113%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 26 $1,056 −$1,046 -99%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $226 −$224 -99%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $252 +$261 +103%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $635 +$1,862 +293%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $369 −$365 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $304 +$137 +45%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $355 −$348 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $590 +$472 +80%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $501 +$1,575 +315%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $872 −$862 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $27 +$38 +140%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $202 −$7 -4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $711 −$699 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $304 +$205 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $604 −$42 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $203 −$6 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $172 +$111 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $374 +$344 +92%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 12 $405 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $102 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $213 −$210 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $119 +$96 +80%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $203 +$145 +72%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $215 +$355 +165%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $406 −$400 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1,182 +$934 +79%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $432 −$425 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $188 −$185 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $507 −$507 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $871 +$651 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $244 +$245 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $567 +$390 +69%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $315 −$310 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $404 +$168 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203 +$241 +119%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $852 +$559 +66%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $303 +$273 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Dplus vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 05 $831 +$476 +57%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $407 −$400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 34¢ $91 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 33¢ $11 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 66¢ $13 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 34¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 56¢ $203 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 54¢ $99 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 53¢ $149 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 51¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $14 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $11 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $51 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $26 4h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $38 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $122 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $3 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 57¢ $180 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 58¢ $101 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 58¢ $101 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 58¢ $506 5h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 58¢ $101 5h
Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 57¢ $29 26h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 61¢ $101 26h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort BUY Alliance Guardians 27¢ $7 30h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort BUY Alliance Guardians 27¢ $8 32h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort BUY Alliance Guardians 27¢ $7 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.54 · official $12.54 (match) · 1988 history records