Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E5 0xe5ca…219b sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,231 (+20%) realized +$1,275 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$347
14 days−$238
30 days+$1,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,257
other 18% +$606
politics 16% −$566
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +58.6% +43.5% 36% 36% +9.4%
≤30d 43 +38.7% +25.5% 33% 30% +11.7%
≤90d 43 +38.7% +25.5% 33% 30% +11.7%
all 43 +38.7% +25.5% 33% 30% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.5% 30% +11.7%
10% +13.5% 30% +1.0%
15% +2.5% 30% -8.8%
20% -7.5% 28% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$99 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$1,275
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage30d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $201 $214 +$13 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $162 $153 −$9 (-5%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Under $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $46 $1 −$46 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 −$20 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $126 +$140 +111%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $78 +$322 +413%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 +$25 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $282 −$168 -60%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $147 −$87 -59%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $63 −$62 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$55 +589%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $37 −$31 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 +$13 +37%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $43 +$128 +299%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $301 −$23 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $120 +$182 +152%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $97 −$22 -23%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 08 $881 −$558 -63%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% an Jun 03 $95 +$6 +7%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Jun 01 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 01 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $120 +$515 +428%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,001 +$2,264 +226%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $314 −$270 -86%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 29 $18 −$3 -15%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 26 $51 +$66 +130%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 24 $51 +$358 +698%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $40 +$100 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $38 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $18 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $238 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $48 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $48 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $90 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $58 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $32 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $23 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 14¢ $0 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $28 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $15 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $15 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $15 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $15 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $28 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under $27 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $36 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.76 · official $420.77 (match) · 135 history records