Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe5cc…cae7 crypto 887 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,394 (-76%) realized −$3,392 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%255W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day153.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,853
7 days−$1,847
14 days−$1,730
30 days−$1,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$429
other 2% −$27
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 -60.3% -64.1% 15% 14% -70.1%
≤30d 890 -22.5% -29.9% 29% 26% -33.8%
≤90d 890 -22.5% -29.9% 29% 26% -33.8%
all 890 -22.5% -29.9% 29% 26% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 26% -33.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 22% -40.2%
15% -42.7% 19% -45.9%
20% -48.3% 16% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,392
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses255 / 635
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)890 / 887
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day153.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 22¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$24 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$85 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$7 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$18 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +583%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.24 · official $2.24 (match) · 3500 history records