Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe5cc…ed79 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+4%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%36W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$129
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$81
other 15% +$11
crypto 13% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -27.7% -34.6% 30% 29% -18.7%
≤30d 84 -27.7% -34.6% 30% 29% -18.7%
≤90d 98 -18.2% -26.0% 37% 34% -8.6%
all 98 -18.2% -26.0% 37% 34% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 34% -8.6%
10% -33.1% 32% -17.4%
15% -39.6% 30% -25.3%
20% -45.5% 28% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses36 / 62
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage84d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $29 +$32 +109%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $41 +$63 +155%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $15 +$18 +118%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $26 +$29 +109%
Will Murtazali Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $15 −$2 -11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $5 +$13 +249%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $25 +$31 +123%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 20 $5 +$6 +115%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$22 +145%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $20 +$18 +89%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$10 +99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $15 −$5 -36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$15 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $24 +$25 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 +$3 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$13 +71%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 +$26 +143%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kyle Nelson win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 12m
O/U 4.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $61 12m
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $29 33m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 40m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 46m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 25¢ $15 54m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $15 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 36¢ $25 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $104 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 21¢ $5 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 37¢ $20 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $33 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $20 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $15 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $55 1h
Will Murtazali Magomedov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 45¢ $15 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Andre Fili 28¢ $14 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $26 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $15 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 19¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 58¢ $18 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 16¢ $5 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $57 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $20 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $25 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 34¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.57 · official $59.57 (match) · 197 history records