Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5cc…ce6c other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$3
other 14% +$1
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.8% -5.2% 75% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 15 +6.7% -3.4% 53% 20% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +6.7% -3.4% 53% 20% -9.0%
all 55 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage465d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $23 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $18 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 +19%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next C Apr 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $26 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $56 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $56 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $10 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $8 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $16 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $15 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $36 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $6 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.94 · official $25.93 (match) · 190 history records