Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5d0…fe50 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$1
politics 28% $0
economics 16% −$1
crypto 8% $0
world 8% $0
sports 8% +$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage113d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $107 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will Danny Willett win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $216 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $108 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $106 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $106 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $106 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $106 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $106 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $106 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $107 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $107 27d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 33d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 35d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 36d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $107 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $107 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $107 41d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $106 41d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $106 43d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $7 44d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $98 44d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $106 50d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $106 51d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 65d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 66d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 70d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $107 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $107 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records