Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5d6…e6d7 other 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 896d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,508 (-3%) realized −$1,460 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%86W / 159L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 896d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$23,824
crypto 35% −$1,010
politics 6% +$15
tech 1% +$18
economics 1% +$73
finance 1% −$4
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 -59.7% -63.5% 40% 0% -65.2%
all 245 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 20% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 20% -54.2%
10% -17.9% 17% -58.6%
15% -25.9% 15% -62.6%
20% -33.1% 10% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +67% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$173 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

896d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$1,460
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses86 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage896d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 28¢ $101 $54 −$48 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3,176 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $906 +$15 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $349 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 24 $1,780 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 25 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Mar 25 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 25 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 25 $2,011 −$2,011 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 25 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 Feb 25 $711 −$711 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Feb 25 $360 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Feb 25 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 25 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 25 $1,510 −$1,510 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 25 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 25 $2,011 −$2,011 -100%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl Feb 13 $166 +$166 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $1,000 −$400 -40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $499 −$499 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $92 −$9 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 11 $89 −$72 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 11 $40 −$24 -59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 11 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 11 $30 −$22 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Feb 11 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Feb 11 $12 +$5 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Feb 11 $82 +$12 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $180 +$17 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $8 +$7 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $15 +$17 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,402 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $921 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $353 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $906 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,394 32d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $349 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,783 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,782 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,780 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 84d
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy BUY Yes 13¢ $130 99d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl SELL Yes 100¢ $333 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 125d
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl BUY Yes 50¢ $8 125d
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl BUY Yes 50¢ $158 125d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 125d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 52¢ $111 125d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 52¢ $97 125d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 52¢ $4 125d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 125d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 SELL Yes 2¢ $3 125d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 125d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 SELL Yes 13¢ $2 126d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 SELL Yes 15¢ $3 126d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.52 · official $53.52 (match) · 2110 history records