Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5db…a82c world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$4
other 25% +$1
politics 7% −$1
finance 5% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 35% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 35% 0% -9.0%
all 38 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage450d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $87 +$3 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $17 +$1 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $24 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $12 −$1 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -20%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $6 $0 +3%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 01 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $51 38m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $45 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $18 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $11 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $30 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records