Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe5dc…a749 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$134 (-6%) realized −$129 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$158
sports 33% +$227
crypto 3% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 32% -8.7%
≤30d 37 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 32% -8.7%
≤90d 37 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 32% -8.7%
all 37 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 32% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 32% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 27% -17.4%
15% -25.2% 24% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$29 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 +$25 +659%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $427 +$46 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $324 +$103 +32%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $317 −$315 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $272 +$50 +18%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $82 +$195 +237%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 +$6 +8%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $27 +$56 +206%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $7 +$16 +245%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 +$21 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$34 +345%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 −$7 -42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 −$7 -36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$11 -46%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$8 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 +$98 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$19 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 37m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $474 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $427 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $428 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $324 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $317 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $322 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $272 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $277 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $82 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $89 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $82 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $27 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.74 · official $15.74 (match) · 64 history records