Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe5e2…a533 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$465 (+6%) realized +$1,110 · open −$645
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$405
sports 11% +$269
world 4% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 14 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 14 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 50% -4.5%
all 14 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 50% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 43% -13.6%
15% -39.9% 29% -22.0%
20% -45.8% 14% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$225 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$1,110
Unrealized−$645
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$526
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $838 $192 −$645 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,680 +$863 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $972 +$187 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,350 +$621 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $213 +$90 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $325 −$115 -36%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $190 +$66 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $500 −$317 -63%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $354 +$102 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $485 −$314 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $753 −$669 -89%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $58 +$40 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 48m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $200 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $272 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $250 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,514 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $500 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $650 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $500 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,159 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $372 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $400 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,971 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,050 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $300 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $303 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $213 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $210 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $75 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $250 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $256 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $190 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $183 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $450 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $184 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $170 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.23 · official $192.23 (match) · 63 history records