Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5e4…cd38 crypto 12 markets active 132d ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,904 (+9%) realized +$7,904 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$7,463per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$13,861
politics 5% −$3,070
other 2% −$1,543
tech 2% −$1,344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.8% 33% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -52.8% 25% -11.0%
15% -57.4% 8% -19.6%
20% -61.6% 8% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,530 vs −$1,777 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,904
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage464d
Avg bet$7,463
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? Feb 17 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Nov 07 $30 +$6 +22%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 07 $1,800 −$1,640 -91%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Jan 21 $1,582 −$1,582 -100%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $330 +$670 +203%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 10 $30,400 +$9,600 +32%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 10 $44,420 +$11,842 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $101 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $160 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 13¢ $288 136d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 138d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 138d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 139d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 139d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records