Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5e6…41f4 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$91 (+5%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$206
sports 1% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -19.6%
≤30d 42 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -19.6%
≤90d 42 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -19.6%
all 42 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 43% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 38% -27.3%
15% -36.8% 26% -34.3%
20% -43.0% 26% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$23 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$55 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$42 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $113 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $175 −$89 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $108 +$68 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$27 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$25 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$50 -90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$39 +345%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records