Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe5e8…fda9 sports 18 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$98 (-8%) realized −$84 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$54
sports 43% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +52.4% +37.9% 73% 64% +11.2%
≤30d 11 +52.4% +37.9% 73% 64% +11.2%
≤90d 11 +52.4% +37.9% 73% 64% +11.2%
all 11 +52.4% +37.9% 73% 64% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.9% 64% +11.2%
10% +24.7% 64% +0.6%
15% +12.6% 36% -9.1%
20% +1.6% 36% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$100 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $110 $96 −$14 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will United State Jun 20 $51 +$278 +542%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $31 +$11 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $66 +$18 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.34 · official $226.34 · 26 history records