Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ec…5c81 world 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized +$5 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate58%161W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$75
sports 14% −$67
other 11% $0
politics 8% −$28
crypto 5% +$7
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% −$3
weather 1% −$6
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.9% -11.3% 48% 34% -3.4%
≤30d 70 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 30% -9.6%
≤90d 255 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 24% -6.2%
all 280 -8.2% -17.0% 58% 23% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 23% -9.8%
10% -24.9% 12% -18.4%
15% -32.2% 10% -26.3%
20% -38.8% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses161 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions37
Markets (closed)280 / 317
History coverage92d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 39¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-53%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 70¢ 68¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 34¢ 98¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+190%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 78¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 76¢ 98¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 77¢ 73¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 72¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No 86¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+88%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 22¢ 33¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$14 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +116%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6 +$1 +24%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$6 +60%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $1 25m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $1 30m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 78¢ $1 34m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $1 38m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2h
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $1 2h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $2 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 38h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 42h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.62 · official $166.63 (match) · 1843 history records