Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe5ec…3cd6 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$396 (-6%) realized −$360 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%54W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$318
14 days−$727
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$827
other 20% +$17
sports 2% +$21
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -40.6% -46.3% 44% 25% -39.2%
≤30d 102 -19.7% -27.3% 53% 45% -21.5%
≤90d 102 -19.7% -27.3% 53% 45% -21.5%
all 102 -19.7% -27.3% 53% 45% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 45% -21.5%
10% -34.3% 35% -29.1%
15% -40.6% 26% -35.9%
20% -46.5% 17% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$44 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$794
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses54 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage48d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $500 $466 −$34 (-7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$44 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$91 -89%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $332 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $109 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $152 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $65 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $794.37 · official $794.41 (match) · 246 history records