Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ee…33c5 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3
other 16% −$7
politics 16% +$1
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 0% -10.2%
all 27 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.7%
10% -21.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.4% 0% -27.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage392d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $35 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $17 −$2 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 02 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $3 $0 -3%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? Jul 01 $29 $0 +1%
2025 June hottest on record? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $46 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.16 · official $41.16 (match) · 103 history records