Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe5ef…d5dd other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$58 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$80
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$157
sports 10% −$24
crypto 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +35.0% +22.1% 75% 75% +10.9%
≤30d 10 +26.3% +14.3% 70% 60% +9.7%
≤90d 10 +26.3% +14.3% 70% 60% +9.7%
all 10 +26.3% +14.3% 70% 60% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 60% +9.7%
10% +3.3% 60% -0.8%
15% -6.7% 60% -10.4%
20% -15.8% 50% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $485 $480 −$5 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$64 +125%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $51 +$81 +158%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $51 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +89%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $20 +$15 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $355 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 23h
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 9d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Harriet Dart 42¢ $52 9d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Harriet Dart 40¢ $51 9d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 54¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 9d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 36¢ $36 9d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Marin Cilic 20¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.16 · official $532.16 (match) · 21 history records