Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5f4…bec6 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%42W / 56L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$3
world 36% +$8
politics 11% $0
sports 9% $0
finance 1% +$22
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 25% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 39 +1.2% -8.4% 38% 10% -9.2%
all 98 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 1% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses42 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage468d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $158 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $158 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $157 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $189 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $167 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $317 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $339 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $192 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $125 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $266 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $127 +$10 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $320 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $449 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $70 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $92 −$5 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $133 +$5 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $154 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $4 $0 -8%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $119 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $23 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $149 +$22 +14%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $3,063 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $1,025 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $914 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will 'Mononoke The Movie: The Phantom in the Rain' win Crunchyroll's F May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the General Liberation and Development Party win the most seats i May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $116 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $158 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $79 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $80 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $104 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $70 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $174 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $142 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $158 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $157 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $132 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $0.00 · 375 history records