Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E5 0xe5f4…8efc sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$50 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$296per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-28.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	9	-20.8%	-28.3%	44%	33%	-11.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.3%	33%	-11.1%
10%	-35.2%	22%	-19.6%
15%	-41.4%	11%	-27.4%
20%	-47.2%	11%	-34.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized−$50

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage604d

Avg bet$296

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Wizards vs. 76ers	Dec 05	$76	+$14	+18%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys	Nov 28	$29	+$46	+156%
Pacers vs. Pistons	Nov 17	$14	−$14	-100%
Pelicans vs. Suns	Nov 10	$26	−$26	-100%
Magic vs. Hawks	Nov 04	$68	−$68	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?	Dec 09	$11	+$1	+8%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?	Dec 09	$11	+$3	+32%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?	Nov 26	$0	$0	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 28	$2,693	−$5	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$29	1h
Wizards vs. 76ers	BUY 76ers	85¢	$76	203d
Chiefs vs. Cowboys	BUY Cowboys	39¢	$29	210d
Pacers vs. Pistons	BUY Pacers	19¢	$14	218d
Pelicans vs. Suns	BUY Pelicans	25¢	$26	224d
Magic vs. Hawks	BUY Magic	61¢	$68	230d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?	BUY No	93¢	$5	573d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?	BUY No	93¢	$7	573d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?	BUY Yes	3¢	$0	573d
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?	BUY No	76¢	$11	574d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	65¢	$37	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	65¢	$37	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$59	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$50	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	66¢	$182	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$92	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$39	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$56	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	66¢	$187	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$26	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$38	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	65¢	$96	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	66¢	$160	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	34¢	$35	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	34¢	$52	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	35¢	$88	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$115	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	65¢	$48	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	65¢	$163	603d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	35¢	$39	603d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.60 · official $28.60 (match) · 82 history records