Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5f5…a4c8 sports 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-14%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$2
crypto 19% −$2
other 16% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -53.0% -57.5% 25% 25% +1.3%
≤30d 24 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -24.1%
≤90d 24 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -24.1%
all 24 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 33% -24.1%
10% -44.1% 33% -31.3%
15% -49.5% 33% -38.0%
20% -54.5% 25% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 20 $6 +$5 +86%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +47%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -49%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -77%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 62¢ $11 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug BUY 40¢ $25 3d
Raphinha: 1+ assists SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Raphinha: 1+ assists BUY Yes 41¢ $1 6d
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 53¢ $6 6d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 7d
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner SELL United States 100¢ $7 7d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 7d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 7d
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner BUY United States 67¢ $5 7d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $3 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records