Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe5fa…f2ce sports 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-8%) realized −$56 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%133W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$49
other 23% −$76
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 39% -11.8%
≤30d 300 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 42% -12.4%
≤90d 300 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 42% -12.4%
all 300 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 42% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 39% -20.8%
15% -31.9% 35% -28.4%
20% -38.6% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses133 / 167
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)300 / 316
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 26¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$36 +356%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Anthony Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$8 +197%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $1 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $1 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 39¢ $1 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $1 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Belgium to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 3¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 27¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 4h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.23 · official $5.23 · 580 history records