Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5fd…04dc other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+4%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 34% +$14
politics 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 23 +4.0% -5.9% 35% 4% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 4% -6.4%
10% -14.9% 4% -15.4%
15% -23.1% 4% -23.5%
20% -30.6% 4% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×12.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.9 per $1 lost it wins $12.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage334d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 -1%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 12 $1 $0 -35%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $11 +$13 +127%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 02 $18 $0 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 11d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $20 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $38 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 197d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 204d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 204d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 44¢ $5 204d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 44¢ $6 204d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $11 204d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $11 204d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 93¢ $11 236d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $11 236d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 236d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $11 236d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 237d
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes $0 237d
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes $1 237d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 237d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $1 237d
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes $1 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records