Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5fe…caab crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$841 (-32%) realized −$841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-87.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -86.1% -87.4% 8% 8% -79.9%
≤30d 12 -86.1% -87.4% 8% 8% -79.9%
≤90d 12 -86.1% -87.4% 8% 8% -79.9%
all 12 -86.1% -87.4% 8% 8% -79.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -87.4% 8% -79.9%
10% -88.6% 8% -81.8%
15% -89.7% 8% -83.6%
20% -90.7% 8% -85.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -86% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$189 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $246 −$230 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $475 −$444 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $229 −$111 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $213 −$200 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $85 −$78 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $170 −$160 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $298 −$277 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $353 −$333 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $168 −$155 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $319 +$213 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$66 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$22 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records