Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe601…0ffd politics 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$186
politics 36% −$15
sports 9% +$26
crypto 5% −$2
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -10.2%
all 150 -2.4% -11.7% 11% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage134d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $241 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $394 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $412 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $169 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $197 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $413 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $455 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $370 −$169 -46%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $660 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $410 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 32h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 34h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 37h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $36 37h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $37 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 454 history records