Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe601…84ec sports 520 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,281 (-3%) realized −$3,282 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%231W / 285L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1,605est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$1,766
14 days−$5,048
30 days−$2,829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,995
crypto 1% −$19
other 1% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -27.1% -34.0% 34% 34% -26.6%
≤30d 246 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 44% -13.3%
≤90d 516 -8.9% -17.5% 45% 44% -13.3%
all 516 -8.9% -17.5% 45% 44% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 44% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 44% -21.6%
15% -32.6% 42% -29.1%
20% -39.2% 37% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$164 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized−$3,282
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses231 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,605
Open positions3
Markets (closed)516 / 520
History coverage66d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 42¢ 46¢ $295 $319 +$25 (+8%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $85 $74 −$12 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $67 $55 −$12 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $144 +$137 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $181 −$178 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 −$499 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $359 +$443 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $382 −$377 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $154 −$151 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $106 −$104 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $225 +$228 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $379 +$474 +125%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $169 +$99 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $239 −$239 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $215 +$185 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $330 +$169 +51%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $266 −$263 -99%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $60 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $71 +$128 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $157 +$91 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $212 −$210 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $124 −$123 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 −$201 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $85 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $110 −$107 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $89 −$86 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $362 −$356 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $94 +$209 +223%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $309 −$304 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $223 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $269 +$287 +107%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $206 −$203 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $140 +$165 +118%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $249 −$245 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $118 +$187 +158%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $154 +$254 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $253 −$248 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $348 +$242 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$24 +79%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $75 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $191 −$188 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $291 +$212 +73%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $234 −$231 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $300 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $92 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $92 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $90 42h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $407 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $803 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $97 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $178 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $70 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $154 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $181 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $312 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $106 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $69 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 2d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 32¢ $114 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $104 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $268 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $169 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $229 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $400 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $239 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 53¢ $215 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $499 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $67 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $330 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.35 · official $448.35 (match) · 1606 history records