Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe60a…a806 sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$642 (-7%) realized −$729 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%66W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$69
14 days−$485
30 days−$740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$741
other 14% +$80
crypto 0% +$20
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +7.9% -2.3% 55% 55% -8.4%
≤30d 134 -4.7% -13.8% 49% 49% -17.3%
≤90d 134 -4.7% -13.8% 49% 49% -17.3%
all 134 -4.7% -13.8% 49% 49% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 49% -17.3%
10% -22.0% 46% -25.2%
15% -29.6% 40% -32.4%
20% -36.5% 32% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$56 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$729
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses66 / 68
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions5
Markets (closed)134 / 139
History coverage20d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Sumit Nagal 36¢ 57¢ $58 $93 +$35 (+60%)
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $38 $80 +$42 (+108%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $14 $33 +$19 (+135%)
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+43%)
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $126 +$32 +26%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $237 +$89 +38%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $14 +$21 +146%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $27 +$15 +57%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $13 +$15 +114%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 27 $74 +$27 +36%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $19 +$12 +62%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 26 $81 −$80 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $15 −$14 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $32 −$31 -99%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +144%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $30 +$10 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $198 +$82 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $114 +$84 +73%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $100 +$14 +14%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $73 +$17 +23%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $25 +$49 +195%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $83 +$41 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $58 −$57 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $117 −$115 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $49 +$30 +62%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $52 −$51 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $22 −$21 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 25 $46 +$13 +29%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $128 +$46 +36%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $15 +$36 +238%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $53 −$52 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $44 +$41 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $58 +$54 +93%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $38 +$77 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $15 34m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $11 1h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 1h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 1h
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $39 1h
Will Henan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 1h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 1h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $12 1h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 36¢ $59 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $158 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $126 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $238 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $237 10h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $19 14h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 14h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 73¢ $74 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $81 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 28¢ $15 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $32 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $14 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $27 14h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Keyd 100¢ $0 15h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Keyd 100¢ $40 15h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Keyd 78¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Keyd 67¢ $10 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $198 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.41 · official $227.41 (match) · 293 history records