Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E6 0xe60d…f64e politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$4
other 26% $0
tech 11% $0
sports 11% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 19 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage110d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $115 −$4 -3%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $116 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $111 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 12h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $111 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 24d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $111 27d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 27d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $111 35d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $111 35d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $111 39d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $115 40d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 47d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 47d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 47d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 47d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 65d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 65d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $116 68d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $116 68d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 69d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 70d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 70d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 70d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $116 73d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $116 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $116 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $116 76d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 79d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records