Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe60d…5289 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 744d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate87%40W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$15
other 22% +$26
economics 12% +$2
politics 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 46 -3.8% -13.0% 87% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -21.3% 2% -17.9%
15% -28.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×9.93 per $1 lost it wins $9.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

744d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses40 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage744d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $636 $636 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $635 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 04 $634 +$1 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 27 $1,266 +$1 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? Feb 24 $2,526 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Jan 23 $1,255 +$3 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $1,879 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $7,770 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $1,231 +$1 +0%
Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in November? Dec 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 31? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $591 +$25 +4%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 18? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 18? Oct 19 $2 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 14? Oct 15 $589 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 10? Oct 10 $591 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 9? Oct 10 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4500 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 15 $1 $0 -31%
Are the New Jersey mystery drones aliens? Dec 15 $1 $0 -30%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 28 $221 −$3 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $40 +$20 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $636 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $635 106d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $635 112d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $634 117d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $634 118d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $634 118d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $634 121d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $633 121d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $462 123d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $172 130d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $633 131d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $513 134d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 135d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $176 135d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $456 135d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 136d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 136d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 136d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 136d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $631 139d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $471 139d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 139d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $630 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $630 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $628 156d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $628 156d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $627 162d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $53 162d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $574 162d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $627 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.04 · official $636.04 (match) · 175 history records