Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe60f…1490 sports 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$863 (+2%) realized +$857 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate89%344W / 43L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$43
14 days+$144
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$632
other 2% +$99
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -9.4% -18.0% 79% 14% -8.7%
≤30d 175 -3.0% -12.3% 85% 27% -9.1%
≤90d 387 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 25% -7.7%
all 387 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 25% -7.7%
10% -18.8% 10% -16.5%
15% -26.6% 4% -24.6%
20% -33.8% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$64 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$857
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses344 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)387 / 388
History coverage66d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Yangon Galacticos 83¢ 100¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $200 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$16 +79%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $200 +$10 +5%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $30 −$13 -42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $28 −$18 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $111 +$21 +19%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $601 +$22 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $262 +$67 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +34%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $503 +$130 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $752 −$205 -27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$40 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $301 +$22 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$3 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $25 +$12 +48%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 83¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 92¢ $100 11h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 98¢ $200 17h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 55¢ $20 21h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 92¢ $5 22h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 92¢ $50 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 95¢ $200 29h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 38¢ $18 29h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $30 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 29¢ $11 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 74¢ $8 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 75¢ $20 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 97¢ $5 34h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 74¢ $5 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $100 42h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 73¢ $5 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 3d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 96¢ $30 3d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 94¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY Estar Backs 83¢ $111 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $100 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $100 4d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $105 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 959 history records