Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe610…fd5d politics 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$195 (-19%) realized −$85 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$265
other 19% +$107
sports 10% −$100
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +12.3%
≤30d 2 +59.2% +44.0% 100% 100% +22.6%
≤90d 2 +59.2% +44.0% 100% 100% +22.6%
all 9 +17.0% +5.8% 56% 56% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 56% -24.3%
10% -4.3% 56% -31.5%
15% -13.5% 44% -38.1%
20% -22.0% 44% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$102 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage91d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-24%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Gove Jun 11 $283 +$68 +24%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 27 $56 +$52 +92%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 19 $351 −$351 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Mar 19 $100 +$65 +65%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slove Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between Mar 18 $25 +$68 +273%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.96 · official $415.03 (match) · 20 history records