Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe611…2970 sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$951 (+9%) realized +$972 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%58W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$907
7 days+$312
14 days+$316
30 days+$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$991
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -11.3% -19.7% 52% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 98 +1.2% -8.4% 59% 56% -1.0%
≤90d 98 +1.2% -8.4% 59% 56% -1.0%
all 98 +1.2% -8.4% 59% 56% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 56% -1.0%
10% -17.2% 49% -10.5%
15% -25.2% 39% -19.1%
20% -32.5% 29% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$85 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$327
Realized+$972
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses58 / 40
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage22d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 39¢ 48¢ $148 $178 +$30 (+20%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Brandon Nakashima 77¢ 60¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 54¢ 38¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $247 +$298 +121%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $201 +$50 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $73 +$107 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $301 +$241 +80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $194 +$171 +88%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $202 −$202 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $112 +$39 +35%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $313 +$264 +84%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $218 +$158 +72%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $241 −$110 -45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $119 +$209 +175%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $203 +$162 +80%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $202 +$86 +42%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $101 +$46 +46%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $242 −$93 -38%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $205 +$147 +72%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $202 +$105 +52%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $105 +$48 +46%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $164 −$164 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $110 +$117 +106%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $101 +$52 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $153 +$47 +31%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $57 −$23 -40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $93 +$107 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$14 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 40¢ $76 28m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 39¢ $74 29m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 77¢ $101 34m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot SELL Elsa Jacquemot 100¢ $545 44m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 46¢ $106 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 46¢ $73 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 41¢ $68 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 40¢ $73 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 100¢ $252 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $101 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 77¢ $101 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 82¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 38¢ $66 15h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $73 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $364 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $91 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $542 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 13¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 14¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $94 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $101 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $101 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $137 22h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 52¢ $99 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 65¢ $101 23h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 65¢ $101 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.60 · official $326.60 (match) · 314 history records