Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe613…1853 sports 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
politics 20% −$3
other 17% −$3
economics 11% −$2
culture 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$2
world 7% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.1% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 170 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage168d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 22 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $263 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $148 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $47 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $48 6h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 12d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 13d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $44 23d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $44 24d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 35d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 35d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $49 119d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $49 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $49 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $49 119d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $50 119d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $48 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $48 119d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $48 119d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $48 119d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 119d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 119d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $46 119d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $46 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $50 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $50 119d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $46 119d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 119d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $15 119d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 119d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $16 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $12 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 693 history records