Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe613…4b61 crypto 645 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate96%617W / 25L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day87.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 642 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 11% -8.4%
≤30d 642 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 642 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 11% -8.4%
all 642 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 11% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 11% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses617 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)642 / 645
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day87.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will USD reach 18,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Yes 79¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.11 (match) · 1267 history records