Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E6
0xe617…f251
weather · 1301 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$21,954 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,504 · open −$840
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60,589
Realized−$19,504
Unrealized−$840
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1159 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions54
Markets (closed)1248 / 1301
History coverage104d
Avg bet$2,902
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 54 History 1248 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,580
7 days+$4,089
14 days+$5,887
30 days+$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $5,000 $5,877 +$877 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5,000 $5,077 +$77 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5,000 $4,984 −$15 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $5,000 $4,925 −$75 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $4,000 $4,091 +$91 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3,000 $3,038 +$38 (+1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $2,500 $2,927 +$427 (+17%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $2,500 $2,660 +$160 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 76¢ $3,000 $2,389 −$611 (-20%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,248 +$248 (+12%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $2,000 $2,105 +$105 (+5%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $2,000 $2,103 +$103 (+5%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $2,000 $2,102 +$102 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,000 $2,033 +$33 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,021 +$21 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 83¢ 83¢ $2,000 $2,001 +$1 (+0%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $1,500 $1,547 +$47 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $1,500 $1,418 −$82 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 52¢ $2,000 $1,250 −$750 (-38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $1,250 +$250 (+25%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 77¢ $1,500 $1,222 −$278 (-19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,048 +$48 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 63¢ 36¢ $1,000 $571 −$429 (-43%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 52¢ $500 $298 −$202 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1,501 +$13 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $1,515 +$468 +31%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,510 +$427 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,524 +$416 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1,015 −$982 -97%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $2,001 +$19 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $1,012 +$433 +43%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 13 $1,001 +$18 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $2,001 +$17 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 13 $2,006 +$145 +7%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,011 +$318 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $5,002 +$46 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $12,046 +$1,258 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $16,061 +$1,711 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 +$2 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,008 +$291 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $3,004 +$54 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5,011 +$155 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $3,011 +$286 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $7,018 +$481 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,507 +$96 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,002 +$29 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,504 +$56 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,002 +$53 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,010 +$142 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2,011 +$303 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,002 +$26 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5,045 +$1,493 +30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $7,011 +$269 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,013 +$219 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,001 +$18 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 10 $500 +$6 +1%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $200 +$7 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $1,000 +$162 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,502 +$33 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $2,000 +$8 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $3,002 +$59 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $3,006 +$166 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 09 $5,000 −$4,134 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,003 +$37 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,003 +$35 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1,002 +$40 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 35% +$24,472
finance 30% −$49,934
world 14% +$6,258
weather 10% −$9,865
other 5% −$585
tech 3% +$11,686
politics 1% +$82
sports 1% +$1,349
economics 0% −$2,965
culture 0% −$842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2,002 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $508 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,016 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,003 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $33 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,501 19h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 98¢ $5,004 33h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 33h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $5,002 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,008 47h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $3,004 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 92¢ $502 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,505 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 91¢ $3,011 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,506 2d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,506 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $2,001 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 92¢ $2,007 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $5,018 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -1.2% -10.7% 91% 24% -7.0%
≤30d 156 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 22% -9.4%
≤90d 1016 +1.3% -8.3% 93% 13% -8.6%
all 1248 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 12% -10.0%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,589.10 · official $60,508.05 (match) · 3500 history records