Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe619…6342 sports 1494 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,171 (-1%) realized −$1,343 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%566W / 900L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1,196est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$47
14 days+$328
30 days−$1,174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1,283
other 18% −$3,087
world 1% −$303
crypto 0% −$26
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -31.1% -37.6% 31% 31% -9.2%
≤30d 366 -20.7% -28.3% 38% 37% -13.0%
≤90d 1420 -16.7% -24.6% 38% 37% -12.0%
all 1466 -16.3% -24.2% 39% 38% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 38% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 36% -20.4%
15% -38.1% 34% -28.1%
20% -44.2% 29% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$41 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1,584
Realized−$1,343
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses566 / 900
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,196
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1466 / 1494
History coverage103d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 41¢ 73¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 90¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $85 $137 +$52 (+61%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 99¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 60¢ $50 $111 +$61 (+122%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 31¢ 62¢ $50 $101 +$51 (+102%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 86¢ $40 $91 +$51 (+126%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 66¢ 44¢ $123 $83 −$40 (-33%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 26¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 19¢ 32¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+66%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 61¢ 56¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-9%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 24¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+194%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-36%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 +$80 +262%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $150 +$126 +84%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$220 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $102 +$127 +124%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $141 +$43 +31%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $124 24m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 29m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $276 30m
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $99 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $26 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $522 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $203 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $33 3h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $195 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $302 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $141 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,583.73 · official $1,584.55 (match) · 3385 history records