Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe61c…dd8d crypto 939 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%610W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$22
sports 4% −$10
weather 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 +0.3% -9.3% 72% 71% -9.2%
≤30d 937 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 937 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 48% -11.9%
all 937 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 48% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 34% -20.3%
15% -27.5% 26% -28.0%
20% -34.6% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses610 / 327
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)937 / 939
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 937 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+112%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $0 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.51 · official $3.08 (match) · 1715 history records