Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe620…418b other 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,235 (+1%) realized +$1,241 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,059per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$66
politics 32% −$71
sports 11% +$1,322
economics 4% −$5
world 2% −$5
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 90 -0.5% -9.9% 7% 3% -8.9%
all 164 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 12% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 12% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 12% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,593) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$6 · ×10.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized+$1,241
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)164 / 167
History coverage164d
Avg bet$1,059
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $436 $435 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $365 $365 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $44 $37 −$6 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,664 −$3 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $405 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $4,027 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $444 +$2 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,382 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $341 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 12 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,784 −$3 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $705 −$1 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $60 +$42 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $3,168 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,544 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,563 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,671 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,947 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $2,400 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $4,401 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,921 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $436 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $458 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $458 3h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $405 5h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $405 6h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $400 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $400 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $382 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $382 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $415 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $416 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $351 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $351 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $340 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $341 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $361 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $327 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $328 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $363 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $364 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $385 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $386 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $365 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $616 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $617 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $528 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $529 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $710 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.52 · official $837.52 (match) · 537 history records